EU referendum poll, EU referendum – Leadership In Europe After Brexit.
EU despite the Brexit “…The Union shall establish an internal market. It shall work for the sustainable development of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive social market economy, aiming at full employment and social progress, and a high level of protection and improvement of the quality of the environment…”
Article 3 of the Treaty European Union. Establishes basic principles and objectives which reverberated in many Briton ears for a long period.
We cannot forget when analyzing Brexit that “Take control” was the main slogan of the Vote Leave campaign.
Michael Gove, the justice secretary, affirmed a few months before the referendum that.
“[UK´s] membership of the EU stops us from being able to choose who makes critical decisions which affect all our lives”.
Also, Boris Johnson, the mayor of London said that EU membership was incompatible with parliamentary sovereignty.
Many Brexiters claimed that even if leaving had a price, it was worth paying to regain control.
They said that Britain as Europe’s second-biggest economy would use strength to get better deals with UE than other non-members such as Switzerland or Norway.
They say Britain’s big trade deficit with the rest of Europe means the EU needs the British market more than the other way around.
Even if no deal were done on single-market access, they reckon relying on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules or having a free-trade deal like Canada’s would be good enough. But is it going to be good enough?
According To The Economist
According to The Economist, if Britain decides to copy the Canadian model with the EU it would gain independence in policymaking and border control. It would even be able to pocket its financial contribution to the EU budget.
But the Canadian model also implies that there would restrain freedom of movement for people and capital. Britain would not have a say on the rules of the single market.
It would also face a new risk of being blindsided at the border. As Canada and Mexico were following the September 11th attacks. By obstacles erected in the name of security.
Which raises the costs of moving goods. Also, there is one special element the Canadian model requires, patience, the negotiations about CETA began in 2007 and the deal is not yet done, there are many untied points of discussion.
A common problem esteeming the elements reunited in the complex subject of analyzing the net ciphers is deciding which source to use. Sources such as the British government, Europe’s statistical office, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
All three of them have different figures and references. Another issue is whether to cover just goods or to add services to consider.
Even so, what matters on this topic is the share of exports. Until Brexit, some 45% of British exports went to other EU countries. Whereas only around 7% of their total exports went to Britain.
German factories would indeed be in selling to the British market. But several other countries run bilateral deficits with Britain or barely trade with it at all. A deal could not interest them considering others worldwide. Then, what is coming on for Europe’s leadership?
According to James McKinney
According to James McKinney from the neutral UK’s independent fact-checking charity Full Fact, £1 bought around €1.30 in global markets on 23 June, and by 17 August was about €1.15.
The pound dropped by around 13% against the US dollar since the day of the vote.
The fall is down to the expectations of investors, who are convinced of the risk around expectations and seriously doubt the speediness of the UK´s economic recovery.
The immediate reaction has been to convert the money into other currencies. So that it can be invested elsewhere, and when there’s less demand for a currency.
Its value drops and imports become more expensive, consequently, British goods and services become cheaper for foreign buyers.
Also, as the Wall Street Journal exposed, financing the shortfall requires the UK to borrow from abroad or sell UK assets to overseas buyers, a tendency Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney has said makes the UK dependent on “the kindness of strangers.”
By this moment, the uncertainty has controlled markets, and Britain’s historical “financial certainty” has stumbled. But, if we just focus our attention on the immediate results of the referendum. More psychological than anything else, aren’t we overlooking the woods in their precise while staring at particular trees?
Before Brexit, big business with a few exceptions tended to be in favor of Britain staying in the EU.
Because it makes it easier for them to move money, people, and products around the world.
Selling things to other EU countries without barriers and the flow of immigrants. Most of whom are young and keen to work, fuel economic growth, and help pay for public services.
But also many leaders who are in business argue the EU’s long list of rules and regulations on business. The protectionism policies over inefficient commerce factors and the charged billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little in return.
This made it difficult to decide which option was better for economic growth.
Many Economists Affirm
Many economists affirm that the gradual process of Brexit for the next two years will show how will the international markets reassert their places in the global economy.
The Brexit has opened a door for Britain letting the negotiations flow with national interests putting aside the unsuitable requirement of reaching an agreement with more than twenty other countries for each economic decision.
This leaves a universe of chances for one of the most flexible economies in the world and in the other way, drives out the stronger counterbalance of Germany in the UE.
There is no doubt that the immensity of Briton companies’ influence will play the main role in the behavior of the financial markets against Europe’s attempts to curb the UK´s growth by political reason